Artificial Intelligence (AI) is accelerating global transformation—from automating workflows to reshaping industries—sparking both excitement and caution. As valuations soar and capital floods into AI ventures, the question dominating boardrooms, markets and media is whether we are in the midst of an AI bubble. But focusing only on that question risks missing the larger picture.
Today’s AI surge is not reminiscent of the dot-com frenzy where speculation overshadowed substance. Instead, it showcases a profound industrial build-out characterized by data center expansion, infrastructure investment, and enterprise-grade adoption. What sets this cycle apart is that the leading AI companies have robust revenues, real customer demand and tangible earnings—a stark contrast to the profitless speculation of 1999.
Mike Capone, CEO of Qlik, captures the nuance: “People keep asking whether AI is a bubble. I do not think that is the right single question. What I see globally is an investment cycle with pockets of speculation on top, not a pure rerun of 1999.”
In this phase, the fundamentals matter—earnings, cash flow, and measurable productivity gains. Yes, there are inflated valuations and concentrated bets on a few dominant players. Yes, certain aspects of the market are vulnerable to correction—particularly where revenue expectations outpace real adoption. But that does not imply collapse. It signals normal market sorting, where overhyped projects will fade while pragmatic, results-driven ones endure.
Crucially, the true dividing line in AI is not between adopters and abstainers—but between disciplined and undisciplined strategies.
As Capone emphasizes: “If a board treats AI as a fashion spend, with no clear view of which work units change and how they will be measured, they are volunteering to be part of the froth. If they treat AI like any other serious capex decision, tied to unit economics, error rates and time to resolution in specific workflows, they are much more likely to create durable value.”
AI is real. Its productivity potential is significant. But so is the risk of misallocation. This is not a fairy tale, nor an implosion. It is a sorting phase—one that will reward discipline, clarity and long-term vision.
